There are so many NBA mock drafts out there now, from big-name sources like The Atlantic and Yahoo to the kid in his mom’s basement sneaking his draft blog into your google search results.
Last year we provided some insight into the accuracy of these prognostications to give you an idea of how low the bar is for these myriad forecasts and where to look for the most reliable projections. We presumed that outlets with dedicated, seasoned, and connected journalists would give fans the most accurate insights into who their favorite teams might pick. So, we looked at the track record over recent seasons (2019-2022) of the mock drafters at six major sports media outlets: The Athletic (Sam Vecenie), Sporting News (multiple authors), Sports Illustrated (Jeremy Woo), Bleacher Report (Jonathan Wasserman), ESPN (Jonathan Givony), and the Ringer (Kevin O’Connor).
Although we selected only experienced NBA insiders for the review, we found there were many, many more misses than hits in all of their mock drafts (see the graph to the right). On average, reviewed drafters were only hitting on 20% of their picks. But we did find that some drafters were consistently better guessers than others.
For the review (article published June 13, 2023), we summed the differences between the mock predictions and actual draft positions for the 2019-22 drafts. We also tallied the number of correct picks made by each publication each season. We used only recent seasons to keep the conditions of the mock drafts, principally the drafts’ authors, consistent.
Although we used a limited number of past drafts, the review (results summarized in above graph) indicated a significant and consistent difference in the accuracy of the mocks among the selected media outlets. ESPN’s Jonathan Givony was the clear winner with predictions that on average were within about 3.6 draft positions of the actual pick over the four reviewed seasons. Givony also made 32 correct picks (27% of all picks) in those four mock drafts. The Sporting News and The Ringer’s Kevin O’Connor were the dogs in the show with only 15 and 18 correct picks respectively and predictions that were off on average by 4.7 positions per pick.
We told you then that ESPN was the best, pointed you there, and wished you the best of luck. But did ESPN payout for you in the 2023 draft?
Yes, ESPN did… kinda… sorta.
If you were a Jazz fan looking for THE prediction for Utah’s three first-round picks last year then, no, ESPN did not give you any help. But neither did almost anybody else. None of the outlets reviewed did very well in telling you how the Jazz would pick at 9, 16, and 28 in the 2023 draft. Out of 18 projected picks by the six reviewed outlets for three Jazz draft slots only one prediction was correct—The Sporting News’ Matt Babcock correctly predicted that the Utah Jazz would pick Taylor Hendricks, forward out of UCF with the 9th pick. That’s it. All other projections for the Jazz’ three picks in 2023 were incorrect.
But who cares? Another draft is upon us and none of you would have remembered which outlet reported what if we hadn’t just told you. You’re right back binging on whatever mock drafts you can get your hands on, just like last year. So, the question is still the same in 2024–who is giving you the best poop? Who’s got the answers this year?
Well… it’s still all about Givony and ESPN. Turns out that, although ESPN whiffed on each of the Jazz’ three 2023 picks, Givony pretty much nailed the 2023 draft as a whole, relatively speaking that is. Givony hit on an amazing 15 of 30 picks in the 2023 draft, six correct picks more than his closest competitor, Vecenie from The Athletic. His miss average per draft slot was 2.4 draft positions—in comparison, Sporting News was off an average of 4.1 positions per pick in last year’s draft.
So, ESPN is still king. They are the bomb diggity. They are the preverbal bag of chips when it comes to mock drafts. We’ll tell you again that these mock draft exercises are crap shoots, regardless of who is guessing. But we’ll also tell you that ESPN still has the best eye.
Now that we’ve confirmed that the mock draft crown still belongs to ESPN Jazz fans… let’s take a look at who they and the others say the Jazz will be taking in next week’s draft.
As you can see above, there’s no consensus. Of course there’s not… there never is because these are just educated wags based on rumors that have passed through smoke screens that have traversed the depths of the inter-web and beyond. But, for what it is worth… ESPN, the mock-draft king, says it’s Topic at 10 for the Jazz and then an old guy out of Creighton who looks like a shorter version of Samanic, but with a better looking shot, at pick 29.
Note that there are only two guesses for the Jazz’ #10 pick that are the same.—so nobody knows anything. Both Kevin O’Connor from The Ringer and Jonathan Wasserman at Bleacher Report have the Jazz taking Dalton Knecht at 10. Dr. Givony and Mr. Woo at ESPN (Woo has moved from SI and is now at ESPN) don’t believe that Knecht, even though he is ancient, will last past the 9th pick. We here at Lower the Rim trust Givony and Woo on the Topic pick (that is, if the Jazz actually make that pick) and we’re fine if the Jazz take the young Serb. Topic may have to sit out a season due to a torn ACL, but that’s OK, plenty of youngsters on the roster already. ESPN has three kids projected right after Topic, however, that we like better–Devin Carter, combo guard out of Providence, Tidjane Salaun, power forward from France, and Ron Holland, a young wing from G League Ignite.
We’d prefer Holland if he were to fall to 10. Ron is one of many on the board with questoinable shooting numbers. But he scored big time against the bigger kids in the G-League, he’s got a massive motor, big-time competitor, is a long athletic wing that can play some D and finish on the O. Better upside than the others that ESPN has at 10-13.
But what do we know? ESPN has the scoreboard. Hail to ESPN… long live the King of the mock draft.