Did Austin Ainge, the newly-minted head of everything for the Utah Jazz, mean what he said, or did he say what he had to say?
And if he meant what he said, then what did he mean?
What he said
Out of the blue, it seemed, Austin Ainge, Assistant General Manager of the Boston Celtics and son of current Utah Jazz CEO Danny Ainge, was hired as the Jazz’ President of Basketball Operations. And it was made clear during the June 2nd press conference, introducing the younger Ainge, that the team was now completely under his control. Everybody, including the team’s owner, will “plugin to” him.
The motivation and abrupt execution of the Ainge hire is a story in and of itself, but not what we’re talking about today. It’s what Ainge the younger had to say about the Jazz’ approach to the upcoming season relating to the T word (tanking) that stole the show.
About 15 minutes into the presser, Sean O’Connor of ESPN 700 finally asked the big question: Mr. Ainge “ (…) what is your philosophy (…) on tanking or manipulating minutes and player performance in order to achieve better lottery odds?”
Ainge did not hesitate in answering “you won’t see that this year.”
Queue Crickets. Silence.
The questioners sat stupefied it seemed. No additional explanation was given by Ainge. No follow up questions could be mustered. Finaly, after 10 seconds of dead air, J.P Chunga broke the awkwardness with an extraneous question about the front office and we were done.
What did he mean?
No one seems to know. Not really. Not for sure.
Sarah Todd, Desert News Utah Jazz beat writer, wrote in a June 2nd article that “according to multiple team sources, Ainge’s words should be taken seriously. The Jazz will not be tanking next year and if that means they lose a lottery pick to the Thunder, so be it” (Utah relinquishes its 2026 draft pick to the Thunder if it does not fall in the top 8).
Big names from big outlets have picked up on the vibe of that reporting and predicted the Jazz will ramp it up in the coming season.
Other NBA insiders are not so sure about that, however; especially the part where the Jazz fail to keep their top eight protected 2026 draft pick. David Locke, host of Locked on Jazz, stated on his podcast that the team would be “negligent” if they let the pick go in a win-now 2025-26 season. Locke noted the stacked western conference and the unlikelihood that the Jazz, even with some addition via trade and keeping veteran talent, could crack the top 8 in the west.
Ryan Smith himself gave Ainge some wiggle room later in the press conference when he stated that the Jazz decision makers will be looking at all the “optionality” that is in front of them relative to their path forward.
Optionality: The quality of being available to be chose but not obligatory (thank you Oxford Dictionary).
Optionality–ugh. It sounds so functional, so very wise. Of course, we want to keep options for rebuilding open–duh. But not picking any option (see the first two seasons of the Jazz rebuild) can be inefficient at best and devastating to accomplishing a goal at worst.
If Ainge’s no-tank clause means Jazz fans will see effort and growth, that the team won’t be “resting” young players like Kessler and making up ailments for the talent that remains on the roster, then more power to them. But reversing course and trying to accelerate the rebuild timeline again, this late, is another story. It’s at least one season too early to do that.
Thread the needle Austin, thread the needle
We hope that the path the new Ainge takes is to thread the needle—yes, improve play while developing young players and new young assets (via draft or trade) but don’t yet add impactful veterans that may push you above 30 wins. In fact, you likely want to keep shedding those veterans that don’t fit a rebuild timeline.
The Jazz fan who is already sick of the rebuild might ask why? Why not start putting chips in now? The answer to that question can be seen in this year’s slate of playoff teams.
Five of this season playoff teams were recent tankers (having a bottom five record for at least two seasons): the Pistons, the Rockets, the Thunder, the Magic, and the Timberwolves. Each has resurfaced from multi-year tanks into competitiveness and play-in or playoff berths. Each of these teams have a starting line-up heavily impacted by their draft picks that were created by tanking (see table below)—flattened lottery odds be damned.
These teams have hit with draft picks selected no worse than the sixth slot, produced by having bottom five records for multiple years. The Jazz spent the first two seasons playing with their food, as they say, resulting in low lottery picks (9-14) and no hits. They still don’t know if they have any starters with the picks they have made the last two season. With little hope of making a playoff run this season, even if they bag a biggish gamer, it would be silly to use hard-earned assets to win a few more games but lose another shot at a top 6 pick.
The league is currently strewn with teams that find themselves struggling to win from the middle, in limbo, out of the top 6 draft slots but not having a top 14 record. The Hawks, the Nets, the Bulls, the Raptors are good examples. These teams are not hitting from where they are swinging with any consistancy and the prospects for improvement for most of them in the next several seasons are dubious. It’s not impossible to succeed from the middle (Atlanta did luck into a #1 lottery pick), but it’s much less likely, sadly, than the complete rebuild model.
So, stay the course Mr. Ainge. You can make good on your words at the presser (sort of) and still get a top-tier draft swing come next July if you are clever. The Jazz should be a season or two away from making Houston/Detroit-like personnel moves.
The eye of the needle is smallish. But as Ryan Smith said, they’ve got smart people around the table. Smart people: Don’t get bogged down in optionality—you’ve got a well proven path laid out in front of you.
The draft is tomorrow—make it count. Hit (that would be Tre Johnson) and then hit again next draft and then explore the optionality space.